A weird year finally in the rearview
An 'exclusive' look into the comfort levels of rugby's major fanbases ahead of RWC23
One of the strangest international men’s rugby seasons in living memory came to a merciful end on the weekend, with South Africa throttling England 27-13 in a replay of the last World Cup final and Wales contriving to lose to Australia 34-39, making New Zealand’s final-quarter collapse against England the previous weekend look as heroic as the defence of The Alamo by comparison.
With less than 300 days until RWC ’23 kicks off, it’s time to rank the main contenders on a Fan Happiness Index (the FHI 100).
FRANCE: 87
The defending Six Nations champions went through the Autumn Internationals unbeaten, though weren’t wholly convincing in beating South Africa and Australia by four and one point respectively. The World Cup is on their patch and any discomfort fans feel about drawing New Zealand in their pool is mitigated by the 40-25 hammering they dished out in Paris last year. Stuart Barnes, Sam Cane’s nemesis, says they are undoubtedly the best team in the world ($).
What have France got to do to become World Rugby’s officially top-rated Test team? In 2022 they played ten matches and won them all. Fabien Galthié’s team are Europe’s grand slam champions and on a 13-match winning run, the longest in the history of French rugby.
France’s fans are 87 percent happy, though they already know that hosting an RWC guarantees them nothing.
IRELAND: 79
Born with a paradoxically cheerful pessimism, Irish rugby fans will be convinced that next year will be the time to break through and win not just their first knockout game at a world cup, but three in a row. They beat South Africa, Fiji and Australia this month, though not entirely convincingly. The series win in New Zealand was the defining moment of their year after narrowly missing out to France in the Six Nations. There is concern, however, that their tactics need refining as the world (and referees) take closer notice.
SOUTH AFRICA: 64
Because humans are prone to recency bias, after a so-so year, Springbok fans will be buoyant following a statement win against England. Because they also love Schalk Burger, hero of the 2007 World Cup, they’ll also be buoyed to learn that he doesn’t believe France and Ireland pose any threat to them next year… but did he actually say that? The Springboks don’t look amazing, but they look built for tournament rugby - their fans know this.
ARGENTINA: 61
I’m not convinced anybody thinks Argentina can win a world cup, except maybe Michael Cheika - suddenly one of the most sought-after coaches in the world. They were running on fumes by the end of the year, as was evidenced by losing to Wales, then getting blown out by Scotland at Murrayfield after an early red card and three subsequent yellows. It is worth noting, however, that this was a year in which they beat the All Blacks in New Zealand, posted a record score against the Wallabies and beat England 30-29 at Twickenham. All told, the fans are happy.
NEW ZEALAND: 51
Perplexing, unsatisfying and yet not a totally hopeless year. The Bledisloe remained under lock and key, the Rugby Championship somehow found its way back to Wellington, Joe Schmidt and Jason Ryan climbed on board the Foster Train and they went through Japan and Europe unbeaten. That was the good. The not so good? They were beaten by Ireland on home soil for the first time. And the second time. They lost to Argentina at home, were hammered by South Africa, got out of jail against Australia, were dreadful against Japan, needed a big comeback to beat Scotland and disintegrated like a sandcastle in a tsunami against England, almost coughing up an unassailable lead. Ian Foster is facing more questions than it seems he has answers for.
SCOTLAND: 50
What is Scotland even doing on this list ahead of the likes of Japan, Georgia, Fiji and perhaps even a partially surgent Italy, for example? Especially when they have both South Africa and Ireland in their pool at the World Cup. I can’t really answer that except to say that some of the rugby they played against the All Blacks was as good as any that team faced in 2022. If they can figure out how to put 80 minutes together, and if Finn Russell and Gregor Townsend can just learn to get along, they could cause a boilover in a very tricky Pool B.
AUSTRALIA: 42
Perhaps the craziest shoulda-coulda year in rugby. Shoulda beaten the All Blacks, shoulda beaten Ireland, shoulda beaten Italy et cetera. Should have also lost to Wales but the miracle comeback has at least finished an injury-riddled year on a high. Probably not good enough to win the World Cup, but they’ve got a year to figure it out and are on the right side of the draw to make it happen.
ENGLAND: 34
Being the salt of the earth type, the man of the people, rough-and-tumble Clive Woodward is perfectly positioned to speak for them, as he did in the Sunday Mail.
This was the worst week in English rugby history. The game in this country is a total shambles and the comprehensive defeat to a South Africa side without nine of its best players showed it. Losing to a second-string Springbok outfit came just days after the Department for Digital, Culture, Media & Sport slammed the leading figures in English rugby for the way they run the sport. When are the leading figures at the RFU going to wake up and realise English rugby is in trouble? Everything is not OK. Eddie Jones will be allowed to carry on as he likes yet again.
I don’t really have anything to add, except that England have a ridiculously soft pool at the World Cup and will also very likely face a bang-average team in the quarters as the draw is so lopsided, so as rubbish as they might be at the moment, they’re still red-hot favourites to make the semis (which, when you think about it, is not a great advertisement for the RWC).
WALES: 4
The mood in the valleys captured in a screen shot.
Well, they did also lose to Georgia in Cardiff.
Two sporting men with vastly different legacies passed away over the weekend.
Doddie Weir, the former Scotland and Lions lock who has been waging a high-profile fight against MND, passed away aged 52, six years after his devastating diagnosis. He left a trail of heartfelt obituaries and messages of condolence.
This from Martin Bayfield is well worth a watch.
In the Caribbean, David Murray, a gifted gloveman whose international career was stymied by Jeff Dujon’s better batting, passed away, as Cricinfo reported, as one of West Indian cricket’s “unforgiven”.
It is what you might call a warts-and-all obituary.
Ultimately, however, Murray's predilection for marijuana - a habit that he had begun aged 13 - was the catalyst for his downfall, first as an international cricketer and then, after his fateful decision to accept US$125,000 to tour Apartheid South Africa in the winter of 1983, as a member of society too. His final decades were spent in poverty in his native Barbados, selling drugs to tourists in Bridgetown, and trading on his infamy.
Speaking of obituaries, I missed this one for Kiwi triathlete Shane Reed earlier this month. I had the great fortune to be at the triathlon course for Bevan Docherty’s bronze medal in 2008, a medal he owed in large part to the work done on the bike for him by Reed.
Docherty was New Zealand’s last triathlon world champion and in the early hours of Sunday morning, Hayden Wilde’s bid for a title eluded him as he finished a disappointing sixth in the season finale to finish third overall behind shock winner Léo Bergère of France and the UK’s Alex Yee.
At the risk of alienating any subscribers who might be uncritical fans of the biggest sport in the world… (pause, deep breath), like clockwork I look forward to the Fifa World Cup and like clockwork I’m reminded how dull most of the pool games are. The England v USA match might be one of worst games of football I’ve sat through from start to finish. As the early and late games fall nicely into my waking hours, I’ve also had the misfortune to watch most of USA v Wales, Morocco v Croatia, Belgium v Canada, Switzerland v Cameroon, Wales v Iran, Tunisia v Australia and Japan v Costa Rica. Eight goals across those eight mentioned games. I’m not alone,
but I’m wondering how you, either casual fans like myself or committed, are feeling about it so far?
THIS WEEK
I’ll return to wrap up the sodden white-ball Indian tour on Wednesday.
The football's been ok. Group stages are often a mixture of nervy nil nils with the odd upset. I think the most interesting bit is the maths of 4 team groups and the jeopardy involved. FIFA somehow has to keep 4 teams per group in 2026, even if it means the knockout stage starts with 2 rounds of 16 where in the first one the best 8 teams get a bye (effectively divide the draw into 4 six team brackets and have a 3x6 and 4x5 initial round, winners play 1 and 2, until you get semifinalists)