Blitz defence solved by AI
The edition where I rank all the contracted Black Caps in The Week That Was, and possibly miss some important events in The Weekend That Will Be
One thing Ian Foster will always have is that All Black teams under his watch weren’t the last team to lose at Eden Park. That record still belongs to Laurie Mains.
In my eyes it might be a toilet-block of a stadium, but when it comes to rugby, the only rational explanation for no team being able to beat the All Blacks there for 30 years is that it’s a toilet block with mystical properties. That has to count for something, right?
We’ll get back to Eden Park at some point soon, which just happens to be what NZC chief executive Scott Weenink wants, which is at turns inexplicable, understandable and bloody depressing, especially this line (emphasis mine).
“... it made no sense for Auckland to invest in two stand-alone stadiums, one rectangular in shape for the football codes, and the other oval-shaped for cricket, when both sports could be accommodated for a fraction of the cost at a redeveloped Eden Park.”
Apologies for the technical nature of my response, but leaning heavily on engineering jargon, here goes:
Pull the other one.
Anyway, moving back to the footy.
Blitz defence. Rush defence. In-your-face defence. Line speed. After seven years of trying, can the All Blacks finally find a way through, around or over it?
It had Shag and Fozzie flummoxed and Razor flunked the first test, so what chance do I have of offering solutions?
Ask ChapGPT, of course.
Me:
How do rugby teams beat the rush defence?
ChatGPT:
Beating the rush defence (also known as blitz defence) in rugby requires strategic play and quick thinking. Here are some effective tactics:
1. Quick Passes and Offloads: Rapid ball movement can outpace the defenders, creating gaps. Offloads before or during the tackle keep the play alive and disrupt the defensive line.
2. Kicking: Tactical kicking behind the defensive line forces defenders to turn and chase, often creating opportunities for the attacking team to regain possession in space.
3. Decoy Runners: Using decoy runners can confuse the defence and create openings. Decoys draw defenders away from the actual ball carrier.
4. Flat Passes: Passing flat (parallel to the try line) reduces the time defenders have to react, potentially catching them offside or unprepared.
5. Changing the Point of Attack: Switching play from one side of the field to the other can exploit gaps in the defensive line as it realigns.
6. Support Play: Ensuring players are in close support to the ball carrier means quick recycling of the ball and maintaining the momentum.
7. Dummy Runs and Fakes: Feinting passes or runs can mislead defenders, creating space for the actual attacking move.
8. Forward Runs and Set Plays: Strong runs from the forwards can draw in defenders, creating space for the backs. Set plays from scrums and lineouts can also be designed to exploit defensive weaknesses.
9. Communication: Clear communication among players is crucial to execute these tactics effectively and identify gaps in the defensive line. Combining these strategies can effectively counter a rush defence, keeping the defence guessing and creating scoring opportunities.
Okay, I could have come up with most of those myself, but not in less than the five seconds it took. Honestly, my days are numbered.
Liam Napier in the Herald ($) has identified the blitz as a key to the test.
While the All Blacks enjoyed some success skirting around England’s midfield shooters, more often than not they were on the receiving end. England fullback George Furbank flattened Rieko Ioane on one occasion and McKenzie copped the brunt of the committed blitz from midfielder Henry Slade on several attempted second man plays. Expect the All Blacks forward pack to take the direct approach and refine their short kicking game to combat their lack of time and space.
“If you haven’t got little things around your skills or depth right you can get really hurt,” All Blacks assistant Jason Holland noted. “We’ve got a couple of ideas around making it hard to bring line speed so you have to go backwards to come forward. You’ve got to get balance in what you do. We can’t be predictable. We’ve got to have a little bit more to our game than what we had in Dunedin.”
More reading:
Robert Kitson has had a great short tour, winging his way around New Zealand and locking in great yarns with the likes of Campbell Johnstone (see last week) and this one with England skills coach, former Waikato utility back and sepsis victim Andrew Strawbridge (to be fair, everybody had this angle, but the Guardian is free).
“... eventually I got well enough to leave hospital. I went to meet the infectious diseases specialist who told me what my life was going to be like. I was told I would suffer from chronic fatigue for the rest of my life, that I wouldn’t work again, that I would be impotent and that they didn’t know how long I would last. Those were all good things to tell a competitive bastard!”
Over at the Times ($), Will Kelleher had a nice long chat with Richie McCaw, and got to fly over Christchurch in a helicopter.
He does not cut the figure of a superstar, and does not want to. He likes that his fellow New Zealanders let him get on with being the Richie that flies helicopters.
“Things have quieted down these days,” he says. “People want a selfie or an autograph, or to talk to you, but you wouldn’t want it another way. Compared to fans in other sports in other countries, where people can’t live normally, or can’t leave their homes without being mobbed, we get on with it pretty normally.
“It’s not as though the All Blacks are untouchable, they’re seen as one of everyone. We’ve got a bit of tall poppy syndrome, but the country is by and large full of humble people who don’t shout from the rooftops about how good they are. You can still be great at what you do, the best, but do it with humility.”
***
The Black Ferns, with a host of changes, play the Wallaroos in their second and final Laurie O’Reilly Cup match, this one at Historic Ballymore.
From the team-naming release: Matatū hooker Atlanta Lolohea is set to make her Black Ferns debut off the bench, while midfielder Monica Tagoai makes her Black Ferns return, in her first test since 2018. The Black Ferns welcome the return of experienced loosehead prop Pip Love, lock Chelsea Bremner and loose forward Lucy Jenkins who have been named in the team for the first time this season.
Australia v Black Ferns, Brisbane, tomorrow 4pm
All Blacks v England, Auckland, tomorrow 7.05pm
Australia v Wales, Melbourne, tomorrow 9.45pm
South Africa v Ireland, Durban, Sunday 3am
Keep an eye out on your inbox on Sunday, for a test edition of The Bounce.
THE WEEK THAT WAS
France’s tour to South America hit the headlines for all the wrong reasons, with accusations of sexual violence that could see the imprisonment of two players, and unambiguous racism (made all the more inflammatory in that Melvyn Jaminet’s “headbutt an Arab” social media post occurred when France was going to the polls with immigration the touchstone issue). Without pre-empting the results of any investigations, it reads like a return to the bad old days, when rugby tours were treated like end-of-season holidays and the players thought they were above the laws of the land.
The White Ferns are 0-6 in England and lucky to have 0. At a basic scorecard assessment level, it has been wicked bad. The tour finishes at Lord’s next week. Things will be said then.
***
Like many, I was a little underwhelmed by New Zealand Cricket’s announcement of the 20 contracted players for 2024-25, though utterly unsurprised by its inherent conservatism.
There is a broad misunderstanding of how the list is compiled and what it represents. It is not selecting a squad. It is more maths-based than that. The selectors rank the top 25 players in each format and assign them points. In T20s and ODIs the top-ranked player gets 25 points, the 25th gets one. In tests the top-ranked player gets 50 points, the 25th-ranked player gets two. The 20 highest point-getters get central contracts.
Simple.
The rationale is each player is ranked with a view to who will offer the most in that format over the next 12 months, with a nod to past performances.
In any given year, 35 players will represent the Black Caps across all formats over a 12 month span, so that player you really like is probably going to get a shot at some point.
The following is my attempt to rank New Zealand Cricket’s 20 centrally contracted players, announced on Wednesday. Making the list for the first time are Rachin Ravindra, who should have been there last year, Bean Sears, Will O’Rourke and Jacob Duffy. Ajaz Patel reappears ahead of red-ball assignments in Asia over the next few months.
Unavailable for contracts were Kane Williamson, who would have been the presumptive No 1, Lockie Ferguson and Adam Milne, while Neil Wagner has retired and Blair Tickner has slipped down the pecking order. Trent Boult and Jimmy Neesham are effectively T20 guns for hire.
It’s a list that speaks to where the Black Caps are at this moment. That is to say, there’s not a whole lot to get pumped about. Sam Wells can talk about depth and Black Caps being in demand around the world, but this is a middle- to bottom-heavy, somewhat out of form list and under normal circumstances, there’s no way three newbies should come straight in and climb as high in the rankings as I have placed them.
THE TOP TIER
These players are not only realistic selections for both white- and red-ball cricket, but have genuine pedigree in every format.
Daryl Mitchell: The best cricketer in the country available for central contracting, with plus-50 averages in test and ODIs, and a decent strike-rate/average combo in T20Is. From a small sample size, he’s only enjoyed moderate success in Asia, so the next few months will be a challenge but I’d be amazed if anybody came within cooee of his top billing.
Matt Henry: New Zealand’s most consistent all-format bowler. Flattered to deceive at test level for years but that is no longer the case as he brings his numbers more in line with his wonderful first-class record. Sneaky good test tailender. Is too high here but seriously, if not him, who?
Devon Conway: In the midst of a difficult year, but his averages range from 38 (T20I) to 44.5 (ODI), so he is a serious player mired in an awful slump, lowlighted by failing to pass 30 in his past eight test innings. More worryingly, his technique has buckled under the pressure. The fall-back cliche is he’s too good a player to keep failing, but he needs a bounce back in Asia.
Rachin Ravindra: From nowhere straight into the top five. If the list is heavily weighted towards what you expect the player to contribute over the next 12 months, then there’s a case for him to be even higher. He’s entering his peak years and just needs to play whenever and wherever he’s available to try to maximise his talent and eliminate some of that looseness that has prevented his first-class numbers ever reaching the levels they should.
Kyle Jamieson: If he recovers as hoped from the long-term back problems that have bedevilled him over the past three years, then New Zealand’s attack looks instantly sharper and more threatening.
THE MIDDLE
Have pedigree, but either inexperience, a format or a large question mark keeps them out of the elite.
Mitchell Santner: By now we know exactly what we get from Santner, yet it still feels like the 32 year old, who will soon pass 250 internationals, hasn’t maxed out his talent. A superb white-ball craftsman with the ball, there are question marks as to whether he can deliver more than plugging an end up at test level. Apparently the selectors saw enough during the two-test tour of Bangladesh last year to consider him a must for the tests in Asia. You can argue the toss on that, but there is no debate that seven plus-50 scores in 183 mostly lower middle-order international innings is a poor return on his batting ability.
Glenn Phillips: You can make an argument that Phillips should be among the top group because there is a buzz around everything he does and he is a genuine option every game New Zealand plays. Balancing that is the awkward fact he averages 35 or fewer with the bat in three formats. Hard to know exactly how to quantify Phillips’ value until we understand over a longer period whether his offspin is the real deal or a cute novelty.
Tim Southee: Is in the midst of a terrible personal test calendar year (and his best T20I year), but does have time to turn it around as he has, counterintuitively, a fine record in India and Sri Lanka. At 35, his runway for failure is ever shorter, though he remains fit and committed to the cause. I’d be surprised if he plays a hell of a lot more ODIs given he will be well on his way to 39 by the time the next World Cup rolls around. You get a separate payment for leadership, but it doesn’t count towards rankings.
Will O’Rourke: Still a month shy of 23 and while he has just eight internationals to his name, he passes the eye test, has the raw talent and the underlying numbers at first-class and List A level to suggest he has a long, profitable future, fitness pending. He surely ranked quite highly in all three formats, despite his relative newness.
Tom Latham: A curious result of Conway’s freefall has been the fact it has shielded his veteran opening partner from similar scrutiny. If anything, Latham’s lean spell has been more worrying. He scored his 13th test century in Karachi in 2022 and has racked up 11 single-figure scores in his past 30 completed test innings, though Asian conditions will not worry him. Is still a highly effective ODI keeper-batter, but does not factor in T20I equations.
Ben Sears: There were apparently big thumbs-ups in the camp over the performance and learning-curve trajectory of Sears, with a belief his pace and skills will serve him in every format. This feels a touch high, but three-format players have a distinct advantage. Profiles in a similar way to O’Rourke, except he’s a few years older and in terms of action, a little less easy on the eye.
THE REST
Obviously good players, but with easily identifiable flaws.
Michael Bracewell: There was a touch of the Roy Hobbses about the way Bracewell gatecrashed international cricket late on in his career, but he still is prone to rookie errors for such an experienced player. With cherry picking of stats I could make a case that Bracewell is too low here. Just as easily, I could make a case for him being too high, but my understanding is that the selectors love his bowling more than I do. Having him and Phillips in the same test XI feels like a luxury.
Will Young: Remains the poster child for selectorial mismanagement, but at some point you’ve got to take one of the scattergun opportunities handed to you. Averages close to 40 in tests (from a small sample size) when not opening, and 22 when he is. Strange that. A strong ODI player and marginal T20I option.
Tom Blundell: If you were to posit that Blundell was in the top five test batters in the country when England left these shores last year, you would have got no argument from me. A year-and-a-half later and he must be hanging on to his spot in the test team by a thread after an inexplicable slump. In his 12 completed innings since then he has a top score of 33 and nine(!) single figure scores. Remains a very good gloveman and a marginal option for short formats.
Ish Sodhi: You could play paper-rock-scissors to determine any order from here on. Initially placed Sodhi lower as it seems like he is clinging onto the international game, but then remembered that he is still just 31 and should be nearing his best years as a leggie. Could have an impact in red-ball cricket in Asia, while he remains a strong T20I wicket-taking option. Has improved his batting chops.
Finn Allen: He has 69 internationals worth of up-and-down performances. He notches plus-50 scores at a rate of one every 6.3 innings. In comparison, David Warner, another explosive white-ball opener with a similar strike-rate profile, scored 50 or more every 3.2 times to the crease. The investment in Allen has been significant, the pay-off uncertain. First-class numbers say he is not a red-ball option.
Mark Chapman: No cricketer confuses me as much as Chapman. Seems to have a richly textured batting game based on confident stroke play that he paradoxically plays without much confidence. Like Will Young, needs a big performance when the pressure is at its most intense.
Henry Nicholls: Possibly benefited from Kane turning down his contract offer, it is difficult to see where the southpaw slots into the immediate plans as his average of 13 in India and 28 in Sri Lanka mean he’s probably not going to feature in the early part of the international season. Still, nine test centuries, some white-ball credentials and the fact he should be in his peak years as a batter mean it is too early to discount him.
Ajaz Patel: Almost certainly a schedule selection. His international career has been a series of colourful vignettes, which should be added to in Sri Lanka and India.
Jacob Duffy: A 30 year old with good domestic numbers and some decent performances when called upon for 20 white-ball internationals. This is surely a reward for being there or thereabouts rather than a nod to the future.
THE WEEKEND THAT WILL BE
Pilloried for much of the past month, Gareth Southgate now stands on the precipice of immortality if he can guide his team to the European Championships, such is the way of English football. Tournaments just don’t make much sense, says the Guardian’s Jonathan Wilson.
What if England had to experience the low of the performance against Denmark to undergo the reset that has led to the final? What if this was how it was always meant to be, Southgate the accidental hero abandoning his blueprints (while still benefiting from in-depth penalty preparation) to finally emulate Sir Alf in his (probable) final tournament? What if the perception of destiny is enough?
Spain v England, Berlin, Monday 7am, TVNZ
Thanks to the Sun shine, Wimbledon has been a hoot this year, especially the women.
Barbora Krejčíková v Jasmine Paolini, Wimbledon women’s final, Sunday 1am
Men’s final (TBD), Monday 1am, both TVNZ
The Tour de France has been epic and there are still the pyrenees and another trip to the Alps to come. Take a little time, too, to marvel at the achievement of Niamh Fisher-Black, who won a breathtaking stage on the women’s Giro d’Italia this week.
In France, Stage 14 shapes as critical for general classification hopes, which includes a summit finish and a climb up the iconic Col du Tourmalet.
Tour de France, Stage 14, Pau-Saint-Lary-Soulan Pla d’Adet, tomorrow 9.45pm, SS Select
Big weekend for the tin cuppers. I left plenty of shots on the Takapuna public course front nine on my way to an unsatisfactory 43 today. Lydia Ko, one shot back from the lead at her latest tilt for a third major at the Evian Masters, fared much better but I’m pretty sure she didn’t have to contend with some fairly erratic playing partners. Ryan Fox and Daniel Hillier are teeing it up at the Scottish Open, the traditional build-up for the Open Championship.
Evian Masters, round two, Evian-Les-Bains, tonight 10pm, SS3
Scottish Open, round two, North Berwick, tonight midnight, SS6
Fresh off his third Xfinity victory of the season, the latest on the streets of Chicago, Shane van Gisbergen takes on Pocono’s tricky triangle as he looks to prove he can take on speedways as well as road courses.
Explore the Pocono Mountains 225, Pocono, Sunday 7am, Three Now
Coming to this a bit late so just this from me as quoted in Cricinfo:
“There's a number of great competitions on during that time, but SA20 looks really exciting," Williamson told reporters on his return to New Zealand after the T20 World Cup. "Unfortunately, it meant turning down a central contract, however my priority still is, absolutely, playing for New Zealand. Think I miss maybe a handful of games over a three-week period.
Is it just me or is “ahem bullsh*t!” a valid response to this?
Thanks for the details about the NZC list Dylan. I hope they use their assets wisely - eg play Ravindra as much as possible.
I was about to write that I look forward to things being said once the women’s tour finishes shortly, but that’s not accurate. The only way is up from here I think. And it’s a shame Bates’s 10,000th international run came up in such a disappointing set of circumstances.
Off now to watch more of the Tour de France. V much enjoyed it this year, for some reason.