Taking big gambles
Weighing up a harmful dilemma, PLUS: money talks inthe Week That Was.
Shane Christie, the former Highlanders, Tasman and New Zealand Maori flanker, offered up a quote last week that I haven’t been able to shake.
I believe him when he says that, but his is not a consensus view. Far from it.
The whole issue of “probable diagnoses” is one of those closed-door debates had by people far smarter than me, but serendipitously, this stunning visual feature appeared on the ABC website.
I’d encourage you to open it up and even if you don’t read the whole thing, then at least look at the visual representations as it walks you through expat Kiwi Gordi Kirkbank-Ellis’ brain. Kirkbank-Ellis played more than three decades of contact sport, starting at Mosgiel’s Taieri Rugby Club and encompassing also karate, league and 10 years of boxing.
Four years ago a client at his personal training business noticed that Kirkbank-Ellis was repeating himself and told him to get checked out. Dr Rowena Mobbs, a neurologist, after seeing a bunch of scans and doing cognitive testing, found that he was showing signs of probable CTE.
It is not the first time Mobbs has made a diagnosis based on her own observations, opinion and tests, as well as research criteria recently developed by the US National Institutes of Health, the world’s largest biomedical research agency.
She is basically doing what Christie is asking specialists to do here, but as the story highlights, “the criteria are meant for research, not diagnosis in a doctor’s office, which has other experts concerned”.
“I make no apologies for caring in the best way possible for my patients,” Dr Mobbs said.
Caution has been urged by other leading medical scientists, including Dr Michael Buckland and Dr Robert Stern, two men I have been lucky enough to talk to over the course of my reporting.
Professor Stern is concerned that, given the publicity CTE gets, people may become unnecessarily scared and hopeless.
“The big problem in my mind is that people self-diagnose,” he said. “They think because they’ve had changes in their mood and keep hearing about people diagnosed with CTE that they’re doomed, they likely have CTE and might not go to the doctor.”
It’s an age-old dilemma that goes back to the origins of the Hippocratic Oath - Primum non nocere, or first do no harm. The worry is that no matter how well-intentioned, “probable” diagnoses do harm because they instigate panic.
Cynically, I would suggest, it could also be used as a shield for sports grappling with a health crisis where definitive answers can only be provided post-mortem.
The question the medical science community has to grapple with is that if a probable diagnosis of CTE gives athletes a measure of clarity in a fog-filled future, how much harm comes from denying them it?
THE WEEK THAT WAS
Meanwhile, as the start of a new Major League Baseball season gets underway, a huge story involving the game’s most transcendent star has emerged in the US which experts expect will lead to huge… nothingness.
It’s a sensational tale as the interpreter for two-way star Shohei Ohtani, ‘stole’ $4.5 million dollars to fund his gambling habit with illegal bookies.
So far, so tragic, yet simple. Except all is not what it appears to be.
Joe Pompliano in his Substack, Huddle Up, has the most-detailed evisceration of this explanation under the headline: “Shohei Ohtani’s Gambling Story Doesn’t Make Sense.”
A couple of the more pertinent questions and points he raised were:
Why did the story suddenly turn from Ohtani clearing interpreter Ippei Mizuhara’s debts to the money being stolen from his account to pay the debts?
How would the interpreter have access to the bank accounts of Ohtani, who recently signed a $700m deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers?
Mizuhara has lived in the US for more than 25 years so how would he not know the difference between a legal gambling house and an illegal bookmaker (as he claimed)?
And, perhaps most pointedly of all, although illegal bookies are inherently shady characters, would any actually be dumb enough to allow somebody on an interpreter’s wage to get into millions of dollars of debt if they didn’t know it could be covered?
Even given that Ohtani makes more than $100m per year in salary and endorsements, this money is not chump change. If, as some suspect, his interpreter is something of a fall-guy in this story, it raises some hideously uncomfortable questions for MLB. Questions that Pompliano indicates will never be addressed.
Baseball’s popularity has plummeted in the US over the past couple of generations. It still makes a lot of money due to the sheer volume of baseball played, but it doesn’t quicken the pulse in the way the NFL and NBA now do.
In terms of fan engagement, Ohtani is the golden goose. When not dealing with elbow pain he is one of the best pitchers in the sport. Whether pitching or not, he is one of the great power hitters of his age. He is a god in Japan and just a rung down from that in the US.
Not only do you not kill the golden goose, you don’t even risk upsetting it.
Staying in the US via Christchurch, Canterbury.
March Madness, the hyper-marketed multi-billion-dollar tournament that whittles down the country’s best 64 men’s and women’s college basketball programmes, started this week.
US bettors are expected to wager more than $2.72 billion on this year’s men’s and women’s national tournaments using legalised sportsbooks, according to the American Gaming Association (AGA). That’s about twice as much as the amount of bets placed on the Super Bowl, according to the AGA.
One of the fundamental reasons given as to why college athletes should now be paid is the insane amount of money made off and by college sports, none of which until recently with the advent of Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) rules has been funnelled to the actual participants.
There won’t be any bets placed on the results from this laptop, but I will be tracking the progress of the St Mary’s Gaels. They’re ranked in the top 20 and play Grand Canyon in their round of 64 match tomorrow.
Seeing St Mary’s in lights triggered a few memories from 2018 and this is all a very roundabout way of pointing you in the direction of one of the stories I enjoyed putting together and writing the most. Along with Carolyne Meng-Yee and photojournalist Mike Scott, we documented the life of former All Black captain Pat Vincent, who arguably did more to spread the gospel of rugby in the US than anyone before or since.
He was a remarkable person and coach, and he was almost certainly gay. It’s a mundane observation these days (although still not in rugby), but if you think about New Zealand in the 1950s, when he captained the All Blacks against the Boks in two tests of the seminal ’56 series, it would have meant a life of utmost compromise.
Given that St Mary’s was a campus that followed Lasallian traditions, this was a topic we had to tiptoe around as we worked out which of his proteges might be comfortable talking about the full spectrum of Vincent’s US life. In the end it was a New Zealander based in California, Jeff Hollings, who broke the ice at a memorial dinner in Vincent’s name, when he said rather loudly: “You do know he was gay, don’t you?”
Vincent’s life was rich and textured and genuinely fascinating, and his sexuality was just one thread of it. As the story signs off:
Vincent did more than anybody to revive rugby in the USA, he profoundly affected the lives of those he taught and coached for the better. His death left lasting scars on those who saw it but his life is still celebrated, more than three decades later.
“He was our coach, our friend, and we were blessed to have him,” says Jerry Murphy.
Ultimately, this is his legacy.
Just to double back to sports gambling for a minute, former Arsenal legend and compulsive gambler Paul Merson’s thoughts on the long bans given to Ivan Toney and Sandro Tonali for betting on football were worth listening to.
“To give people 10-month bans for an addiction that is ravaging football, with sponsorships all over the shirts... They needed help and I don't think ‘help’ is giving them 10-month bans.
“We underestimate this addiction. We need to show it some respect and not, ‘Oh, show a bit of willpower’. I would say to the people who make these rules up and ban people, ‘Next time you get diarrhoea, try and stop that with willpower’.”
The main shirt sponsors for 40 percent of teams in the Premier League are online gambling sites.
What does that tell you?
THE WEEKEND THAT WILL BE
Far from exhaustive, etc etc…
The morbid/ schadenfreudian fascination with the Crusaders post-Razor plummet continues. Across the park at Sport Review, Richard Irvine has investigated in a way few others would have thought to, and has traced the decline back to the mishandling of Scott Robertson’s handover.doc, which he covered in time-honoured oral history format.
NB. Satire follows.
Rob Penney: I was trying to log into Teams, the password was defaulting to the kids’ educational account, telling me to download authenticator. No-one’s got time for that shit.
Scott ‘Razor’ Robertson: NZR uses macs, it was out of my hands.
NBB. The Bounce is still in NZ derbies-only mode.
Chiefs v Highlanders, Hamilton, tomorrow 4.35pm
Blues v Crusaders, Auckland, tomorrow 7.05pm, both SS1
Unbeaten Canberra versus the not-unbeaten Warriors at Christchurch. This game freaks me out a little because I still have nightmares about the Warriors throwing away a late lead against the Raiders at Mt Smart last season, although they won in golden point. These nightmares that were revisited in Melbourne last weekend. The Warriors do a lot of things right, but closing out games is not a strength. I’d need to see some data before confidently stating this, but my eye tells me they defend slightly differently with a lead, less aggressive in terms of line speed and more bend-don’t-break in nature. If true, it doesn’t suit them.
Great double-header tonight.
NZ Warriors v Canberra, Christchurch, tonight 8pm
Easts v Souths, Sydney, tonight 10pm, both SS4
The international cricket season is not over but I’m not sure how much succour White Ferns fans will find in the eight-match white-ball series against England, having been outplayed in the opening two T20Is. The Ferns inability to hit England’s spinners for boundaries has crippled them and I’m not sure they have thought hard enough about the batting order.
To add to the woes, captain Sophie Devine, returning to the squad after missing the first game due to WPL commitments (interestingly, England counterpart Heather Knight chose to leave the WPL early), has clearly pissed some people off with these comments: “Being brutally honest, no, there’s not much depth coming through and that’s where we’ve got to be realistic as a country, we don’t have millions of people that are playing cricket.”
The captaincy-coaching styles of Devine and Ben Sawyer are not to everybody’s taste, but still it was jarring to hear English commentator Alex Hartley mention that the seemingly self-evident comments had ruffled a lot of feathers, and for White Fern Frankie Mackay to follow that free-hit up by stating that Devine was “at best insensitive, at worst offensive”. Part of the angst stems from Devine not playing in the Super Smash, the argument being that it’s harder to build depth if your best players skip the showpiece domestic tournament.
NZ v England, 3rd T20I, Nelson, Sunday 1pm, TVNZ+
Formula One is waaaaay more interesting off the track than on at the moment, with Mercedes firing well-aimed shots at the transparency in the sport. Lewis Hamilton praised Susie Wolff, the managing director of the all-female series the F1 Academy and wife of Mercedes team principal Toto, for standing up for herself in filing a criminal complaint against the governing body over its handling of an investigation into a potential conflict of interest.
“There is a real lack of accountability here, within this sport, within the FIA,” he said. “There are things that are happening behind closed doors, there is no transparency, there is really no accountability and we need that. The fans need that. How can you trust the sport and what is happening here if you don’t have that?”
Switching F1 for Nascar and more specifically the feeder Xfinity series, I asked D’Arcy Waldegrave, who uses pneumatic jacks to adjust the height of his seat, what the general consensus was on Shane van Gisbergen’s start to racing life in the US: “He’s been really, really good. The consensus is he’s making good use of a fast car from a slick team. He has the equipment and looks like he’s picking up the finer points of the series with reasonable haste.”
Melbourne GP, Sunday 5pm, SS 2
Xfinity Circuit of the Americas, Austin, Sunday 10am, Three Now
I’ve completely lost track of SailGP these days, but I know it’s in Christchurch this weekend and I think it’s on Three Now.
Another great column Dylan, thank you.
I watched a bit of the England women practising a couple of weeks ago and have been keeping a close eye on the results, both the full series and the “A” series. Sophie Devine’s comments resonated because I couldn’t get over who from the Super Smash had made their way into the two teams. Respectfully, some of them just can’t play....
Players like Bates, Devine & Kerr are streets ahead of the rest, and the former two are in their twilight years and haven’t been consistent enough at international level for a few years to win us games. Kerr is a once in a lifetime talent, and on a completely different plane to those around her.
On the flip side I recently attended a NSW vs Victoria women’s 50 over game in Sydney and was shocked to find that some very impressive players that day are not part of the national set up.
Turning back to NZ I do wonder however if we hamstring ourselves further with selections. Given Devine’s comments it would seem that good players should have a longer shelf life and there shouldn’t be too much rush to turn them over if there is no depth to replace them from. Why then have players like Frankie McKay and Kate Ebrahim been phased out so readily? Also don’t understand how Zara Jetly is not in the top 25 players in NZ after a solid Super Smash and a season playing mens cricket in England.
Here it feels a bit like a amateur game that has been conferred professional standing before it was earned but we still need to make the best of the situation.
One positive from the dire state of women's cricket in NZ - I've enjoyed the commentary of Martin and Mackay, for different reasons.
Mackay is the same in the comms box as on field - not scared to have a go. She has fired some serious broadsides when given the chance, often to the discomfort of her co-commentator. But its a peek behind the Devine-curtain of blaming the set up, and while Satterthwaite kept a dignified silence about her dropping, Frankie has gone in to bat on her behalf
Martin has been a revelation with her technical knowledge - she likes to joke around and be a bit of a goose sometimes but the serious analysis she brings is a real strength. I suspect she would eviscerate a lot of the White Ferns' techniques etc if she wasnt so close to many of them. Give it a year or two and a new generation of players