To all the semis we've loved before

A bells-and-whistles extended mix of The Weekend That Will Be

As hard as he tried to stare into the distance, Foster could see no further ahead than the semifinal. Getty Images

If I’ve seen one story about the All Blacks erasing the pain of Yokohama 2019, I must have seen 100. It’s like no other narrative exists for a World Cup semifinal other than to reference the previous.

“All Blacks out to banish the demons of 2019 semifinal loss.”

“All Blacks dig deep mentally in attempt to clear semifinal hurdle.”

“Revitalised All Blacks aiming to slay World Cup demons of Yokohama.”

“Foster downplays All Blacks’ ‘lingering’ thoughts of 2019 semifinal exit.”

“‘No holding anything back’: Anxious ABs look to avoid semifinal pitfalls.”

“New Zealand receive pep talk from two-time World Cup winner Dan Carter as All Blacks seek to avoid another semifinal upset against Argentina.”

And so on…

We the media have become one giant Churchillian tribute band. “Right boys, Those That Fail to Learn from History are Doomed to Repeat It in the key of G-major, from the top…”

If you strip out all the history and mythology and just focus on the fact that every World Cup there are a bunch of teams trying to win a tournament, the All Blacks record of making the semis is remarkable.

Their record of winning semifinals is 50-50, as mathematically as bog standard as you can get.

New Zealand are clearly the best at making the semis and, subsequently, have lost at this stage more than any other team. England are the best at negotiating them, but I’m not sure they go into this weekend particularly buoyed by the fact they’ve only lost at this stage once before - they might not be quite so chained to their rugby history as New Zealand is.

The idea that the All Blacks are semifinal chokers is a popular, yet far from robust idea. Yes, the numbers are not in line with their historic win percentages, but New Zealand has lost at that stage to England (2019), France (1999) and Australia (1991 and 2003). There are no muppets among them. There’s nothing in rugby’s law book that says those teams are not allowed to play well and by this stage of the tournament you tend to have four excellent teams desperate to play the final.

The idea that the All Blacks should win all those games because they’re the All Blacks is romantic, but not rooted in reality.

Having said that, I’ll be shocked - shocked! - if the All Blacks lose to Argentina in Paris. Despite the two hiccups in recent years, they’re more talented across the field and they’re in better form.

If they lose then fine, you can come at me with the ugliest ‘c’-word in sports, the one that rhymes with smokers. Until then…