Give it a twirl

Santner's spin far more enticing than World Rugby's.

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Greetings and a quick note  to introduce a much-truncated Week That Was and a non-existent Weekend That Will Be. The Bounce has been doing a bit of domestic jet-setting this week. Things should return to normal next week, which will mean a midweek newsletter, as we reach the conclusion of the CWC23 and start to lean into the silly season.

It always feels slightly dangerous to jump the gun when there is a >0% chance that New Zealand will not reach the semifinals of the Cricket World Cup… but damn the torpedoes, here goes.

The Black Caps have almost certainly the semifinals for the fifth time in succession after comfortably accounting for Sri Lanka in Bengaluru overnight. In the lead-up to this tournament I think I saw or read two non-New Zealand-based pundits - Mark Ramprakash and Harbhajan Singh - pick them to reach the knockouts. There were bound to be others floating out there in Opinionsville, but the vast majority of those I came across had New Zealand sitting behind the likes of England and Pakistan.

This is a paradox, being at once understandable and perplexing. You can kind of see why New Zealand would be under-rated and maybe even ignored, yet this is a team whose core is well-travelled, impeccably credentialed and has demonstrated a longstanding proficiency for tournament cricket. I was reminded of this headline I wrote about a year ago, “NZ’s tournament consistency is bonkers,” and which I happily stand by.

The reason they’re usually missing from top-four lists is because there always seems to be other teams with more ‘sex appeal’. To wit, if you were to ask all the same pundits before the tournament for the young player most likely to have a breakout month, you can almost guarantee the names of Shubnam Gill, Marco Jansen, Cam Green, Harry Brook and, before injury ruled him out, Naseem Shah, would have featured higher than Rachin Ravindra. In fairness, most of those names would have been above him on my list too, given that I initially saw him as a horses-for-courses selection for pitches expected to turn, rather than a locked-in member of the top order.

This New Zealand side is not perfect by any stretch. The four-match losing streak that preceded the Sri Lanka wins are Exhibits A though D. An injury here and there has left them creaking. However, even though they’ve made a couple of iffy selection calls, have endured an extended period of the dropsies and have misread the conditions at least once, they very rarely get in their own way. They know how they want to play and who they want to pick to enable them to do so.

So here they are again, unless Pakistan do something truly extraordinary against England in their final match. Realistically they will have to score around 400 and tip the defending champions over for 120, otherwise New Zealand will face India at Mumbai’s Wankhede Stadium on Wednesday night.

There is a bit of chatter, including here…

…  that New Zealand is the team India would least like to face in the semifinals and there is a kernel of truth to that. This is a team that has frustrated them time and again at World Cups but as an immediate counter to that storyline, India are by far and away the best team at this tournament. They don’t have a weak link. Hardik Pandya’s injury might rob them of a dynamic, match-winning batter who can also play as a genuine fourth seamer, but that is about all that’s gone wrong for them.

We’ll dig into the semifinal come Wednesday, but New Zealand will need a lot to go right for them, including multiple wickets with the new ball - something that was the key contributor to their comfortable, affirming victory overnight.

It was comforting to see Trent Boult and Tim Southee take wickets at the top, but even they weren’t as much fun as watching Mitchell Santner go about his work. He looks like he’s having the time of his life.

In the above Cricinfo piece, this was fascinating:

For the batter, there are few, if any, clues to be gleaned about the pace at which Santner will release the ball from his approach to the crease and load-up. His run-up contributes little by way of momentum, since his action is distinctly stop-start, with a pause before he gets into his delivery stride.

Santner spoke about this pause, and how it helps him read batters’ intentions.

“If you talk to some of the other bowlers, they try to probably look at some spot on the pitch. I try to watch the batter the whole time,” Santner said. “The little delay [in my action] helps me if they’re going to charge at me or try something… At times, especially when it’s flat or if I think the batsman is going to do something, I watch him even harder.”

Afghanistan v South Africa, Ahmedabad, tonight 9.30pm, SS1

Australia v Bangladesh, Pune, tomorrow 6pm, SS1

England v Pakistan, Kolkata, tomorrow 9.30pm, SS2

India v Netherlands, Bengaluru, Sunday 9.30pm, SS1 

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Uh-oh Henry Nicholls, this doesn’t look great.

There are a couple of curious lines in the story about alleged ball-tampering, per Stuff:

If found guilty, Nicholls could face match suspension, lose part or all of his match fee and could face a fine starting at $500+GST.

If found guilty, a match suspension for what would be blatant cheating seems very, very light, but that added GST has got to sting!

Canterbury Cricket chief executive Jez Curwin did not wish to comment, nor did Auckland Cricket chief executive Iain Laxon.

I can kind of see why Laxon would want to stay out of this, though if I was an Auckland player I’d rather see my boss push off the pickets and demand a points redress, but there really is no excuse for Curwin to duck and dive.

Weak.

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Great to see Sophie Devine leading the WBBL run charts, but don’t get too excited when you see the headline: “Devine smashes blistering hundred and banks freakish record in the process.”

White Ferns star Sophie Devine is back dominating the WBBL for another season and the power-hitting all-rounder has found herself as the new owner of a rare batting record in the T20 competition. 

The rare/ freakish record?

She is the only WBBL batter to twice go to a century by hitting a six.

No, you’re right, in T20 cricket, trying to hit sixes late in the innings is hardly “freakish”, but well done all the same.

THE WEEK THAT WAS

The news about Beauden Barrett’s quicker-than-expected return to New Zealand footy is interesting on a couple of levels.

Per Stuff:

New Zealand Rugby revealed on Thursday that Barrett, 32, is poised to sign a multiyear year deal through to 2027, which will make him available for the All Blacks in 2024.

Barrett’s retention would ease the fears about a lack of experience in the No 10 jersey following the departure of Richie Mo’unga to Japan.

It was clear that Barrett had this in mind after he took umbrage at the suggestion he was trying to negotiate dispensation to circumvent the usual sabbatical protocols.

In triplicate. Getty Images

A source familiar with Barrett’s thinking told me the main drivers for his return are playing at lock and second five-eighth. He loves playing footy with his brothers and wants that to continue for as long as possible.

To that end, it would be interesting to know whether new coach Scott Robertson provided any steer on Barrett’s decision making. You would assume he will be at least in part picking his early squads with an eye on 2027, by which point Barrett will be 36. That’s certainly doable (more so at No10 than fullback, perhaps), but Barrett has worn through a lot of tread on his tyres.

If he is part of Robertson’s immediate thinking and his form holds, all of a sudden 150 caps becomes a distinct possibility.

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I was away when this World Rugby press release dropped and felt a familiar sense of unease about the blithe statements made.

World Rugby Chairman Sir Bill Beaumont has welcomed results from the largest ever studies into the forces experienced by rugby players. The results, which provide players and parents with greater clarity and confidence than ever before into the benefits and safety of rugby, are a first anywhere in world sport. 

The Otago Community Head Impact Detection study (ORCHID) a joint project between World Rugby, Prevent Biometrics, New Zealand Rugby, Otago Rugby and the University of Otago, has published the first independent, peer-reviewed findings into community rugby following almost two years of trail-blazing research.  The study measures over 17,000 separate head acceleration events across more than 300 players from senior rugby through to U13s level...

The ORCHID paper shows that in the men’s community game:

• 86 percent of forces measured are the same as or less than those experienced in other forms of exercise such as running, jumping or skipping;

• 94 percent of forces are lower than those previously measured on people riding a rollercoaster;

• The large majority of events resulting in the highest measured forces are as a result of poor technique in the tackle and at the breakdown.

The Elite Extension study also showed that:

• Most contact events in elite rugby do not result in any significant force to the head;

• Where low, medium and high force events do occur they are most common in tackles and carries, followed by rucks;

• Both men’s and women’s forwards were more likely to experience force events than backs.

I’m not sure where to start other than to say you can pilot a roller coaster through the holes in this release. 

Some questions I hope World Rugby answers:

What happens during the other 14 percent of forces?

Exactly how many parents send their kids off to two roller coaster trainings a week before an 80-minute loop-de-loop every Saturday in winter?

When you say low-, medium- and high-force events occur most commonly in tackles and carries, followed by rucks, isn’t what you’re really saying is they happen in rugby, full stop, because last time I watched a game, tackles, carries and rucks made up a significant part of the sport?

Without any reference to cumulative effects of head impacts, how exactly will this make parents and players feel any safer?

There are many more questions to ask, both big and small, but that’s where I’d start.

It was unsurprising to see the research questioned, and Dr Willie Stewart is no fringe critic. The conflict of interest and independence points he raises are an evergreen problem with no simple answers.

My biggest initial takeaway is not that the research lacks value, I’m not familiar enough with the methodology or the science to comment with any authority on that, but that the release is written in such a way to immediately invite not only suspicion, but a fair amount of derision.

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This is a better than average cautionary tale about an athlete, Mikey Williams, who jumped on the hype train and was pushed too far, too fast.

From Yahoo! Sports:

“I’m trying to be worth a billion dollars by the time I’m 25,” teenage basketball star Mikey Williams told the “I am Athlete” podcast just over a year ago.

At the time, Williams’ goal seemed audacious, if not implausible. Now it’s a jarring reminder of how quickly a celebrated prospect’s dream can unravel. Once a social media sensation who rose to the top of the 2023 class, amassed more than five million Instagram and TikTok followers and became one of the early faces of the name, image and likeness era, Williams is now facing a legal fight for his freedom...

Williams has pleaded not guilty to six counts of assault with a firearm, one count of firing into an occupied motor vehicle and two counts of making threats that could result in death or great bodily injury. The nine felony charges carry a penalty of up to 30 years in prison if Williams is convicted.