Ireland v NZ / Point v Counterpoint
While drowning in the green seas of pessimism, I went looking for someone who wasn’t. PLUS: Cricket, netball, Sky TV, the NBA and a dash of exotic football.
The Point
by Jim Kayes
The winner of the 2023 World Cup will come from Pool A or B, with three Ds set to be decisive: defence, discipline and (set-piece) dominance.
We’ll get to those in a tick, but first things first - don’t write off the All Blacks on Sunday. Not at all. Sure they lost to Ireland last year, but they were convincing winners in the first test, were a man down in the second (more on that soon) and this is a vastly better All Blacks side thanks, in particular, to Ian Foster’s greatest selection, forwards coach Jason Ryan. Ireland are a terrific team and deserve their favouritism, but they have demons to defeat if they are to win on Sunday. Ireland have never got past the quarter-finals and that bogey looms large for them.
Oh man, there are so many subplots to this test, I’m like a kid on Christmas morning waiting for the rest of the family to wake up.
It is an enduring pity that the draw for this World Cup was done three years ago and it pitted the top four teams in the world against each other in the quarter-finals, not the semifinals.
By this time next week two of New Zealand, France, South Africa and Ireland will be at home while two of Fiji, England, Wales and Argentina are preparing for a semifinal.
No one who knows rugby believes that is good and it’s why the winner will come from the first two pools who square off at 8am on Sunday and Monday.
They shape as fascinating matches.
Each of the quartet has been at times impressive in pool play: Ireland in their wins against South Africa and Scotland; France in their second half against the All Blacks; New Zealand in the demolition of Italy; and South Africa with their win against Scotland and, despite the result, in their titanic match against Ireland.
It is said that attack gets you into the playoffs, but championships are won through ‘D’ for defence. The All Blacks lead the way for points and tries scored, and clean breaks, and are second to Scotland for offloads, so it’s no surprise they have made the last number of tackles - they haven’t had to make many. Retaining the ball is the best form of defence there is.
Another important ‘D’ is discipline, especially as there is a battalion of match officials - the referee, his assistants, the TMO and the bunker - making this the most scrutinised World Cup ever.
The challenge is for the players to take the officials out of the equation.
They should know that head clashes and high tackles won’t be tolerated and that the consequences of being down a man (or more) are significant.
The All Blacks should’ve learnt that lesson in 2017 when they lost Sonny Bill Williams to a red card in the second test defeat to the British and Irish Lions.
Or against Australia in 2019 when a four-point halftime deficit to Australia in Perth blew out to a 46-27 loss as a red carded Scott Barrett spent the second half off the field.
Or last year when Angus Ta’avao came on for a yellow carded Ofa Tu’ungafasi and was red carded. The All Blacks had 13 on the field at times in that 23-12 loss to Ireland. You can’t beat a team as good as Ireland with only 13 men. There is a message there for the All Blacks this weekend.
The power is in the players’ hands. Stay low in the tackles, use your arms - do the basics, really.
There is a third ‘D’ to consider is dominance, as in set-piece dominance. This World Cup has reinforced the importance of lineout and scrum and how that flows through the rest of the game.
Just ask the Wallabies. Their scrum and lineout disintegrated in the second half against Wales and with it crumbled their playoff hopes. The All Blacks have a good scrum and lineout - as they showed against South Africa in Auckland earlier this year. That sort of performance is needed again.
Actually, there is a fourth D. D-Mack. Damian McKenzie. He could be a game changer off the bench, especially if that third D, dominance, has been achieved.
So who wins?
Before the tournament started I tipped the following in The Bounce (with warning I’ve never made a dollar at the TAB).
Pool A: France (1) NZ (2)
Pool B: South Africa, Ireland
Pool C: Australia, Fiji
Pool D: Argentina, England
Q1: Aus v Eng; Q2: SA v NZ; Q3: Arg v Fiji; Q4: France v Ire
SF 1: Eng v NZ; SF 2: Arg v France
So that wasn’t 100 percent correct, but those four teams might still make the semifinals, though I suspect they won’t and if they do it will be in a different configuration. Most crucially, however, I still think it will be a France-New Zealand final.
As for this weekend specifically, France will beat South Africa, Wales will edge Argentina and though I would love Fiji to beat England, the Poms will probably squeeze Fiji, kick their goals, get the rub of the 50-50 decisions and slink into the semifinals.
If the All Blacks set piece is sound, they keep 15 on the field and are accurate on defence, they have the firepower on attack to win. They can win.
Say it quietly and often… it will happen.
***
The Counterpoint
by Dylan Cleaver
Cards on the table.
Ireland beats the All Blacks on Sunday1.