Playing the numbers game
MND research and (gulp) the White Ferns in The Week That Was; golf, Wahs and lots of wheels in The Weekend That Will Be. PLUS: Bonus Ty Cobb long read
It might be hard to muster a huge amount of enthusiasm for a test against Fiji in a neutral territory (and judging by the absence of a single story on the San Diego Union-Tribune website, this is being staged for expats and Silver Lake’s corporate friends only1), but one slow-burner to keep an eye on is this: could Beauden Barrett end up passing Sam Whitelock’s recently set New Zealand caps record?
More shockingly, could he give Wales’ Alun Wyn-Jones world record a tickle up?
Barrett will play his 126th test in Southern California tomorrow, having made critical contributions off the bench in the narrow two test victories over England.
Let’s park the debate about whether he offers more from the bench or the starting XV (I’d lean towards the bench at this point of his career, but that might be recency bias), and instead focus on what he could do in his final World Cup cycle.
Discounting the Covid-ravaged 2020 year, Barrett has averaged 11.4 tests per year since his first full year in 2013.
He would have required 31 tests in this cycle to go from his 123 to 154 and past Whitelock. That seems more than doable if Barrett remains injury free and stays in the selectors’ good graces.
The latter seems more likely now than it did a few months ago, when the noise around Barrett’s re-signing was more muted than Robertson’s pining for another playmaker plying his trade in Japan, Richie Mo’unga. Barrett needed, it seemed, to remind Robertson how good he was.
The other factor to consider is the cliff. It is out there for every player, particularly those who rely heavily on speed, and you don’t gently slide down a cliff. You just go splat.
Barrett has more layers to his game than pure speed, but it’s still a big part of his repertoire. Will it be there at 35?
Let’s assume for the sake of this that he stays fit, stays sharp and stays in the team as a guy who can both control matches from the start or change their direction from the bench. Whitelock’s record will go, but what about Wyn-Jones?
The 158 he accumulated for Wales will be at risk, but the 171 needed to pass his combined Wales and British & Irish Lions tally - that’s most likely going to remain tantalisingly out of reach.
I can tell you that the caps record is the one Whitelock is most proud of. It’s also the one he, like Richie McCaw before him, both treasures and wants to see broken.
I know this because I’ve read his book…
And you should too!
***
Interesting news about Ardie Savea from Liam Napier in the Herald and one that points to a more robust future for Moana Pasifika. The struggling franchise’s future seemed up in the air as recently as a couple of months ago, with one well-placed source saying they had been notable by their absence in the recruitment space.
Securing Savea’s services would be a major marquee (eds note: Liam, tautology!) addition for Moana, coming hot on the heels of their ownership sale to the Pasifika Medical Association earlier this month.
As well as playing alongside his older brother, switching Super Rugby allegiance to Moana would also allow Savea to represent his proud Samoan heritage.
All Blacks v Fiji, San Diego, tomorrow 2.30pm, SS 1
THE WEEK THAT WAS
A crass way of looking at it, maybe, but there was a big piece of work in the medical science/ sports concussion world in a week where another untimely death proved how much we need it.